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Author Topic: September is a warm one so far  (Read 1399 times)

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Offline Durham Forum

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September is a warm one so far
« on: Sep 18, 2006, 18:04 »
After a poor (average) August, September is going to be well above average come the end of the month. The mean temperature so far is 3.4 degC above average for September, and that currently makes it warmer than August was.

The warmest September (since 2000) at Ferryhill was last year (14.3 degC), but this month will beat that quite easily, the average currently standing at 16.1 degC. Eleven days above 20 degC is also a record for Ferryhill.

Rainfall will be above the long term mean of 46mm, as 42mm has fallen so far.

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Re: September is a warm one so far
« Reply #1 on: Sep 22, 2006, 07:26 »
Yesterday's temperature beat the existing September record at Ferryhill quite comfortably (25.2 set last year), with 27.1 degC being the new high. It was the 14th day with temperature over 20 degC this month, also a new high (previously 9, again set in 2005).

This month may wll be the warmest September ever recorded at Durham if the mildness continues. The records show September 1865 and 1949 holding the record, having a mean of 15.2 degC. The current mean at Ferryhill is 16.2 degC, which is normally 0.5-1.0 degC above Durham, so it's going to be close I think.

A year with two all time warmest months would be highly significant.



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Re: September is a warm one so far
« Reply #2 on: Sep 22, 2006, 08:13 »
You're born alone, you die alone.  Anything in between is make believe.

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Re: September is a warm one so far
« Reply #3 on: Sep 22, 2006, 10:59 »
It is indeed. If we look at the CET (Central England Temperature) Series going back to 1659, no single year has more than one all time monthly record holder. The longer the series goes on, the less likely this is to happen, but it looks like September and July will be in it for 2006 as the hottest example for each. The current September record has stood for 277 years (since 1729). It is the last long standing record in the 2nd half of the year, all others have been recently beaten. The September all time max is also the longest standing for ANY warmest month. With 6 days to go, the current CET is 0.4 degC above the 1729 mark.

Already in there as the warmest in recent years are : July 2006, October 2001, August 1995, November 1994, Year 1990. To get a 'coldest ever' month, you have to go back as far as February 1947, and before that, August 1912.

Between 1659 and 1900 there were 18 years averaging 10 degC or above. From 1900-2005 there were 24, with 11 since 1990.

CET Series http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/CR_data/Daily/HadCET_act.txt


Very worrying.

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Re: September is a warm one so far
« Reply #4 on: Oct 02, 2006, 11:34 »
September was duly booked in as the warmest on record today, as far as the Central England Temperature series is concerned. The mean of 16.8 degC beat the old record, which had stood since 1729, by 0.2 degC. That means two 'warmest' months in the same year, which is a new one on me.

The last three months of the year all need to be substantially above average though if it's to be the warmest year on record, due to the cool spring.

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